Finals Prediction

Two of my favorite teams are meeting in the finals this year! Obviously I am rooting for the Lakers but there are many matchups in this series that favor the Magic. This series is going to go down to the wire but I am predicting that the Lakers will pull it out in 6.
Here is my breakdown of the series:

Point Guard:
Phil Jackson needs to stop playing D fish. I love fish but his time is done. Phil is not going to bench him but expect to see a lot of Farmar and Brown guarding Alston, and Johnson respectively. The key for the Laker guards are to stop dribble penetration.

On the magic side when Alston is hot the magic play extremely well. There have been rumors that Nelson might be able to come back for the finals. Jameer is a horrible matchup for the Lakers and would be a big boost to the Magic if he can play. The key for the Magic point guards is to get as much dribble penetration and to make open shots.

Advantage: Magic

Shooting Guard:
The magic have no answer for Kobe. Expect to see a lot of Pietrus. What will be interesting to see is if the Magic use double teams. They did not double team Lebron that much so I expect to see a lot of one on one defense from Pietrus.
Advantage: Lakers

Small Forward:
Trevor Ariza will guard a lot of different players in this series. His offense and ability to stay out of foul trouble will be very important for the Lakers. Hedo on the other hand is the Magic's closer. In the Playoffs he has not been shooting particularly well but he has been making shots at all the right times. For Orlando Hedo needs to shoot well and keep the floor stretched out. His dribble penetration will be another key.

Edge: Slight Edge Magic


Power Forward:
The Power Forward matchup matches Pau Gasol and Rashard Lewis. Gasol plays more like a Center, and Rashard more like a small forward. This matchup will be the most interesting because the Lakers will have to decide who guard Rashad and likewise the Magic will have to decide who guards Pau because as the matchup stands it is a huge mismatch both ways. The Lakers have Lamar Odom who is versatile enough to guard Rashad but the Magic will have to decide if they want to use Gortat or double teams to guard Pau.

Edge: Lakers



Center:
Unlike the Cavaliers, the Lakers have a lot of big bodies to throw at Dwight Howard. The Lakers will need to make sure to foul Dwight and make him make free throws and limit his dunks. On offense Lakers will need to attack Dwight and try to get him in foul trouble. Gortat is a skilled backup but he is the only other Magic player who can control the paint.

Edge: Magic

Bench:
Magic Bench is led by Pietrus who will see a lot of minutes guarding Kobe. His corner three killed the Cavs and the Lakers will have to make sure he does not get good looks. If Nelson returns he could be a huge help for the Magic bench which is not particularly explosive. Gortat is solid and can score on the pick and roll.

The Lakers Bench has been a different story every game and it is unclear what kind of production the Lakers will get in the finals. Lamar, Brown, Farmar, Vujacic, and Luke will all play. Powell will also be used for fouls on Dwight. Expect Lamar to close out games and Brown and Farmar to get extensive minutes.

Edge: Slight Edge Lakers

Coach: Phil has the experience but no longer makes many adjustments within series. Stan Van Gundy will run many plays and try out a variety of strategies. However in the Finals I think Phil's calm style and experience and control over the team will win the series.
Edge: Lakers

My keys to the series:

Lakers:
Get Howard off the court
No Dunks for Howard
No Open three pointers
Pound the Ball Inside
Fast Break Points
100% Effort Every Game
Role Players Shoot well

Magic:
Keep Howard on the Court
Dribble Penetration
Contain Kobe
Shoot above 40% from 3 point line
Transition Defense

Biggest Questions:
The starting lineups have a lot of mistmatches for both teams who will make the lineup changes first? Who will guard Rashad and Hedo? Who will guard Pau?

In the end the Lakers experience and defense will win the series. If La controls the paint and speed that will compensate for the Magic's great 3 point defense. The Lakers have more offensive weapons than the Magic and the size advantage. I expect the Lakers to win the 2009 Championship in 6!