NFL IS BACK 2010 PICKS!

Yes it is my favorite time of the year. Football season coming back means the summer bore of only baseball is over and Nba and NHL are only a month or two away. Last season was all about throwing the ball the superbowl was the two best offenses going head to head. That rarely happens in the NFL so I am going to guarantee that the Saints don't win the super bowl. I cannot make the same prediction about the Colts because Manning wins atleast 12 games a year without help every year. Lets jump right in starting with the AFC.

AFC West: This is the Chargers division to lose. Denver will hurt with the Moreno injury and loss of Marshall. ESPN will cover every Tebow breath and the pressure will get to Orton who will choke and Broncos will not win a game with Tebow starting. The Raiders will improve a lot this season, their defense is outstanding and Campbell if healthy is a huge upgrade at quarterback. But inconsistent running backs and receiving corps will keep them out of the playoffs. The Chiefs will have a solid running game which allow them to win 3 games. Rivers marches through the division even without Jackson.

San Diego: 11-5
Raiders: 8-8
Denver: 6-10
Chiefs: 4-12

AFC East: There is nothing good about the city of Buffalo and the same could be said about the Bills. The Dolphins made a nice run last year but did not make any major upgrades. Still with the other teams having question marks the Dolphins should be right at .500 challenging for a playoff spot. The Patriots return healthy and Welker looks ready for action. Moss is disappointed and the defense looks old once again. The Jets have looked sloppy on HBO hard knocks and Sanchez looks like he is going to have tough sophomore season. I think this division is very open and a 3 team race.

Pats:9-7
Jets: 9-7
Dolphins: 8-8
Bills: 3-13

AFC South: How can you bet against Peyton? The team looked terrible in preseason but they have Peyton so they win the division. The Texans look better on defense and already were one of the top offenses. The Jaguars have tons of question marks and will go as far as Maurice Jones Drew knee. Titans Vince Young is the starter from the beginning this year. I got a feeling Kerry Collins will finish the year.
Colts: 12-4
Texans: 10-6
Titans: 7-9
Jaguars: 6-10

AFC North: This is the best division in football. Steelers defense will follow Palomalu and if they can survive the first four games then they have a great chance with Big Ben back. The Bengals look great on paper but are a TO Ocho Cinco blowup away from missing the playoffs. The Browns will improve with Delhomme but the teams in the division are too good and the Browns will not be able to compete. Finally the Ravens solid on defense and greatly improved on Offense. Flacco continues to improve and is silently putting up monster numbers. If their running game can produce Baltimore is a super bowl contender.
Ravens: 12-4
Bengals: 11-5
Steelers: 9-7
Browns: 3-13

NFC East: Mcnabb leaves the Eagles with Kolb and Vick. Eagles are still well coached and have a lot of talent but the loss of Mcnabb hurts a lot. The Giants return a healthy defensive line but Eli continues to look shaky and there are no guarantees. The Redskins finally have a franchise QB but probably will only get 3 years out of Mcnabb if that. If Mcnabb stays heathly the Skins can make the playoffs. The Cowboys return as the most talented team in the NFC but with underperforming Decembers and Januaries we will see if they can become first team to play a home superbowl.

Cowboys: 11-5
Redskins: 10-6
Eagles: 8-8
Giants: 7-9

NFC South: Tampa failed to make any big moves and will remain on the bottom of the division. Carolina lost Peppers and Delhomme and will struggle to find a defensive or offensive identity. The Falcons will try to improve a great offense with a balanced defense that can contain Brees. Drew Brees is back and with all his weapons it will be very hard to stop the Saints offense once again.
Saints: 11-5
Falcons: 11-5
Panthers: 6-10
Bucs: 3-13

NFC North: Favre is too old and without all his weapons the Vikings wil rely on Peterson. Peterson is good enough to take the team to the playoffs without Favre aslong as Favre does not force things. The Lions will be lot more fun to watch but still struggle to win more then 6 games. Cutler and the Bears will improve a lot and the defense will love a Urlacher return. The Packers are the best team in the division and will be a superbowl contender if the defense remains consistent.

Packers: 12-4
Bears: 8-8
Vikings: 8-8
Lions: 6-10

NFC West: The Rams will surprise people with Bradford's poise but Jackson needs to stay healthy for the Rams to upset people. The Cardinals lost all their star power except for Fitzgerald, with all attention to him the Cardinals will struggle. The Seahawks will be a solid team but do not have the depth to challenge anyone. The 49ers have the best defense in the league and several offensive weapons. If Alex Smith can keep a QB rating above 90 the 49ers are a superbowl contender. If not then could be another disappointing year for my boys.

49ers: 11-5
Rams: 8-8
Seahawks: 6-10
Cardinals: 4-13


AFC Playoffs
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AFC Playoffs
1. Colts
2. Ravens
3. Chargers
4. Jets
5. Bengals
6. Texans
Wildcard weekend:
Chargers over Texans
Bengals over Jets
Divisional Round:
Colts over Bengals
Ravens over Chargers
AFC Championship:
Ravens over Colts

NFC Playoffs
1.Packers
2. Saints
3. 49ers
4. Cowboys
5. Falcons
6. Redskins
Wildcard Weekend:
49ers over Redskins
Cowboys over Falcons

Divisional Round
49ers over Saints
Packers over Cowboys
NFC Championship
49ers over Packers

Superbowl
49ers over Ravens.

If Alex Smith doesn't do the 90 or above rating then 49ers lose to Saints and Ravens beat the Packers in the superbowl!

Decision Day

I have been traveling for 2 weeks all over Europe enjoying the world cup with some of the best fans in the world and returned just in time for decision day. For anybody else who may have been sleeping while I was in Europe here are some recent events. Amare to the knicks, Boozer to the bulls, Ray Allen back to the Celtics, Wade and Bosh to the heat, and Durant extension to the Thunder. All that is left is Chris Paul if he opts out and Lebron James, who wil make his decision tonight.

Here are his options: Heat, Bulls, Cavs, Knicks, and Nets.
I am going to throw out the Nets right away because the nets do not give him the ideal side kick they have an owner willing to spend but do not have a team ready to win right now.

Knicks: If Lebron chooses the knicks it is going to be all about the big picture. First he will restore a knicks heat rivalry and get a great side kick in Amare. Next he will be in the basketball spotlight and quickly become the greatest knick to ever play. Lastly his goal of becoming a billionaire becomes more real with all the advertisement revenue in New York.

Cavs: Lebron is extremely loyal and leaving the Cavs will hurt because of two reasons. 1 because it is hometown and he will be leaving family and friends. 2 because he will be admitting he could not win on his own and needs a sidekick to win it all. Everybody already knew this but it will hurt Lebron's ego to join a team like the heat where he will be joining other superstars just to win the title.

Bulls: I like this option best for Lebron and actually think this would be the team to beat if Lebron joins because of their overall talent. Rose, Deng, James, Boozer, Noah is a great defensive, young, athletic starting 5. The Bulls also have a decent bench and would already be ready to compete for the title.

Miami: This is the most intriguing team that Lebron can join. If he joins he would team up then the Heat would have 3 of the top 6 players in the NBA. Ideally the NBA would have none of the top 10 Nba players on the same team but the Heat would have 3 of the top 6 for the next 5-7 years all in their prime. SCARY for the rest of the league great for the heat. The only thing with the Heat is they would fill the rest of the roster with anyone who was willing to play for a ring for cheap. Also Lebron would have to admit he needed Wade to win and it would be interesting to see who gets the last shot because of the fact that we are talking about 2 of the top 3 players in the league on the same team. Personally I do not think the move is the best for Lebron's career or the league but would be extremely fun to watch the heat every game. If Lebron chooses the Heat it would start a cycle of all good free agents colluding and joining a team because that would be the only way to win a title.

Overall I am not sure where Lebron will be going but his decision will significantly shift the league and the way free agency work. Contenders for next year are the Lakers, Celtics, Magic. The second tier is Thunder, Bulls, and Heat. If Lebron chooses Bulls or Heat they jump into the favorites. If he chooses Knicks, Nets, or Cavs they jump into the second tier. As a NBA fan I would love to see the Heat's dream team but also want to keep some parity in the league. I personally hope he joins the Knick, Bulls, or Cavs. But if he joins the Heat I will watch every single one of their games.

World Cup Predictions

4 years of waiting and we finally have the 2010 world cup starting in 2 days. There are lots of things to blog about such as significance of this world cup being the first in Africa, the horrible pitch conditions, security at the games, the 'wacky' nature of the game ball, the injuries to many of the superstars but I will focus on who will win each group and my picks for the championship.

Group A: Group A is a three team race between Uruguay, Mexico, and France. (Sorry South Africa the only reason you are in this tournament is because you are the host). France is the favorite on paper but is continuing age. Furthermore the recent scandals with their top players and the fact that the only reason they qualified was a Henry handball does not bode well to the soccer gods. I think the Gods go against France and Mexico and Uruguay qualify over them the blues. \

Group B: The Argentinians are the overwhelming favorites with Greece, Nigeria, and South Koreans also in the division. This will be the world cup that Messi who is considered the best player in the world shakes off the reputation of under performing for his national team. Maradona will provide more drama then the actual games but Argentina should win the group easily. The 2nd spot is up for grabs between Greece and Nigeria. I will pick Nigeria.

Group C: USA will play its biggest match in recent world cup history this Friday against England. It should be a great match and determine who wins the group and gets second place. I don;t believe Algeria or Slovenia will challenge USA or England. With that being said England is nursing several injuries and have not played well leading up to the game. This game means a lot more to the Americans and I believe USA shocks England and takes first place in the group.

Group D: D is a very strong group but with the injury of Esien Ghana will fall out of the race. The Germans are missing several players but should still be able to win the group with Serbia on their tale qualifying in 2nd.

Group E: Holland is looking very strong going into the world cup and I believe they will have a cake walk through this division. The 2nd spot is up between Cameroon and Denmark. I believe Cameroon will win and has the best chance of all the African teams to advance in the world cup.

Group F: Italy received the easiest draw in the world cup and will advance to the 2nd round. 2nd place is up for grabs I believe Paraguay will grab the spot.

Group G: The so called "group of death" has become a little weaker with injury to Drogba weakening the Ivory Coast. Big story lines in the group are North Korea's return to the world cup, can Ronaldo perform wel for Portugal, and will the Brazilians win without their usual attacking formation and without Ronaldinho. Brazil wins the group with Portugal coming in 2nd.

Group H: Spain is one of the big favorites in the tournament and is nursing a lot of injuries. This group does not offer them too many challenges and they should be able to qualify. Honduras is a very talented team but Chile should hold them off for the 2nd spot.

2nd Round:
1A vs. 2B
Mexico vs. Nigeria - Mexico
1C vs. 2D
USA vs. Serbia - USA

1E vs. 2F
Holland vs. Paraguay - Holland
1G vs. 2H
Brazil vs. Chile - Brazil (Tough match for Brazil)

1B vs. 2A
Argentina vs. Uruguay - Argentina
1D vs. 2C
Germany vs. England - Germany (Toss up here)

1F vs. 2E
Italy vs. Cameroon - Italy
1H vs. 2G
Spain vs. Portugal - Spain (Portugal has talent to knock off Spain here)

Quarter Finals
USA over Mexico
Brazil over Holland (I like winner of this game to win the World Cup)
Argentina over Germany (Magician comes again)
Spain over Italy (Youth take over the aging Italians)

Semifinals
Brazil over USA (Could easily be England here but Brazil wins regardless)
Spain over Argentina (Both teams not known to perform well in world cups)

Finals
Brazil over Spain. (Brazil wins every other world cup and continues that pattern)

Game 2 Nba Finals Rapid Reaction

This had to be one of the worst officiated NBA games I have seen in a while. Bad Calls were made against both teams changing the entire dynamic of the game and often creating momentum for respective teams. Overall this years playoffs have shown without veteran referee Steve Javie the NBA lacks consistent refereeing. Many people have noticed it over the years and Stern continues to not address the issue.

Here are the biggest things players should understand going into a game:
1. In the restricted zone can I still put my hands up? - NBA Rule is :Yes you are still allowed to defend in the restricted zone as long as you jump up with your hands up. Problem referees do not know this call and often call blocks instead of non-calls. Also if offensive player tries to force contact it can still be an offensive foul. Most referees anticipate contact and usually call it on the defense.

2. Can a offensive foul be called on a player if he is in the air before the defender reaches the spot.- NBA Rule is: No. Problem: Athletes now a days can jump for a long time and many offensive fouls are called from a player landing after a pass or after a shot. If the player was in the air before the defender reached the spot or if the player has already shot or passed the referees should make it a no-call.

3. What contact is allowed in the post? - NBA Rule: Very vague but basically states defender is allowed to hold his ground no one is allowed to use upper body to gain position. Problem: Rule is vague and each referee calls it differently. Players flop on calls to exaggerate the call not making it any easier. But wouldn't be nice if the referee told players he will be calling x,y, and z any time they see it.

4. Contact allowed on screens. - NBA Rule: Pick must be set before offensive player starts moving toward it. NBA player can fight around screen but not directly through it. Screener can not stick out arms or elbows. Problem: When player is going around screen very hard to determine if foul is on screener or defender. Players like Ray Allen and Rip Hamilton are constantly moving when picks are set often they have started moving before the pick was set. No easy fix here.

5. Handcheck fouls. - NBA Rule: No hand checks in the perimeter of the court. Problem: What is a block and what is a no-call. When is it a reach in and when is it a clear steal? Problem: Judgement calls where referees will always have opinions. But each referee should make it clear the level of contact they allow. Foul trouble changes the entire game.

For all of the above problems one clear thing to make it easier on referees is my suggestion on stopping flopping. Once you clean up flops a lot of the problems above lower significantly. But next each referee should explain the rules on the highly disputed issues and any call they make should be justified by their pre-game comments.

This is a significant issue for people who think it is not the NBA finals 2010 game 2 is the perfect example. Kobe Bryant received 2 errant calls which translates too about 10-14 less minutes of action, Kobe turning into a pure jump shooter because of the scare of driving offensive fouls, and lower defensive intensity. Similarly Lamar Odom, Kevin Garnett, and Perkins were all in foul trouble due to several tossup post play foul calls. Significance Garnett never got in a rhythm, Bynum received extended minutes. All of these things significantly changes game 2. I am not arguing that the referees wanted the Celtics to win but I am saying their calls significantly affected the game and who knows who would have won had the game been better officiated. Both teams received bad calls but more then calls costing one or two points these calls changed the entire game play and often the momentum of the game. We can only hope the rest of the series is decided by the two teams and not the referees.

NBA FINALS

The nba finals are a repeat of the Boston massacre in 2008 with a couple significant changes. The Lakers are the favorite because of home court Boston easily defeated the Magic and Cavs and are by no means an underdog in this series. The 2-3-2 format puts pressure on LA to win the first 2 games but also makes it easier to steal a game in Boston.

Here are some overall keys for both teams.
Boston:
1. Establish a slow pace of the game and grind it out halfcourt game. (One exception Rondo fast break off of steals. )
2. Keep the Lakers under 100 points.
3. Attack Pau Gasol and Bynum early
4. Big Baby and Rasheed continue to score 20 points a game combined.
5. Rondo over Pierce, don't run Pierce isolation instead have Rondo penetrate and dish.
6. Steal Game 1 or Game 2
7. Continue to play extremely physical.

Lakers:
1. Score more than 100 points a game.
2. Stop Rondo penetration
3. Establish Pau and Bynum early
4. Try to get Garnett, Rondo in foul trouble early.
5. Set hard picks on Rondo the entire game.
6. Kobe getting to free throw line 8-10 times a game.
7. Lamar Odom averaging a double double in the series.
8. Ron Artest shutting down Pierce and avoiding foul trouble.
9. Bench production and no offensive meltdowns like previous Boston series.


Matchups to Watch:
1. Garnett vs. Gasol - Last time with Perkins and no Bynum Garnett did not have to guard Gasol the entire game this series they will be going head to head. Garnett is extremely physical and will not allow Gasol to play soft. Lakers need Gasol to dunk and not try to finish with finesse.

2. Rondo vs. Lakers - Last nba finals Rondo killed the Lakers with his penetration. Lakers have to decide whose guarding Rondo and need to have good rotation and help. While rotating they cannot leave Ray Allen Open. Whoever guards Rondo shall try to force him to take jump shots and make him finish at the rim instead of fouling him.

3. Refs vs. both teams: Series will be extremely physical and all the superstars need to watch out for suspensions and ejections. Ron Artest seems to be under control but you never know. Referees have been quite bad in the playoffs and hopefully will not change any of these games.

4. Pierce vs. Artest: Last time Lakers had no one to stop Pierce and he had a great finals on his way to being the Finals MVP. This year Lakers got Artest to stop Lebron and Paul Pierce. Artest should be able to frustrate Pierce and force him to take too many shots.

4. Kobe vs. Celtics: Last series James Posey did a great job defending Kobe but he is gone. Celtics best defender is Tony Allen but will start with either Ray or Paul Pierce on Kobe. Kobe will be in attack mode and will post up ray allen and run a pick and roll against Pierce. It is important that he continues to take good shots and pick his spots aggressively to avoid droughts that plagued the lakers in the 2008 series.

5. Rivers vs. Jackson - In 2008 Rivers frankly out coached Phil. Phil usually gets the matchups he wants and makes the correct adjustments in the series it will be interesting to see Jackson's bench rotation and how the Lakers decide to stop Rondo.

Prediction: Celtics are the better team on paper but the Lakers match up very well against them. Lakers brought in Artest to stop Pierce and a semi-healthy Bynum will give the Lakers more size. The week of rest will have both teams healthy and ready to play. Lakers need to win the first 2 games at home, steal one on the road and should be able to finish the series in 6 games.

Getting rid of flops and dives.

A problem today in professional sports is the amount of faking professional athletes do in order to get a foul call from the referee. In basketball this is most common when a player is guarding another person and flops in order to get the referee to call an offensive foul on the defense. Often these flops lead to trips because a player is on the floor and puts the referee in a very hard position to determine whether contact was made or not. Similarly in soccer players dive in order to win free kicks. Often these dives have no contact at all and players scream in pain on the floor for minutes waiting for stretchers to come. Once the players reach the sidelines they are miraculously fine and come back into the game. I think this problem can be fixed relatively easily in soccer but it is a little more challenging in basketball. My proposed solutions are below:

Soccer:
Throughout the game the referee uses his intuition to call the game. If he thinks it is a foul he awards a foul and for any dive he gives the player a yellow or red card depending on the offense. What I just explained is the current way referees penalize dives. However, in addition to the real-time game reffing, each game will be visited again via instant replay. At halftime and at the end of the game. Any players who faked dives during the game will receive yellow and red cards based on the replays. Plays before halftime will take affect right away and plays in the second half will take effect during the next game. This solution does not slow down the current pace of soccer and will still allow the ref to make real-time calls. However, now players will know that they will get caught for any fake dives and penalized eventually. The new system will take several months to get used too but soon players will not be able to afford to dive. Instead of getting caught maybe 5% of the time they will be getting caught at least 90% of the time. This will clean up the game stop the fake injuries and keep us spectators from screaming at all the bad calls. The system requires no additional technology and will quickly clean up the game of soccer. Some may argue that yellow or red cards at halftime are unfair so I would be open to debate this or change the rule so that all replays take place after the game and all red and yellow cards are put forward to the next game.

Basketball:
For Basketball a similar system would be ideal but fouls are lot less significant than red and yellow cards. Also starting a player with one foul to start a game has never been seen and would receive a lot of debate from members around the league. For this reason what I think should be done is that anytime a member is taking a charge the referee should make a decision whether the play has a foul or a no-call. If the contact is minimum or incidental the referee should decide the play is a no-call, and if the contact changes the outcome of the play a foul shall be called. However, the referee does not indicate who the foul is on. Once a referee calls a foul the game is stopped in an NBA game so this rule change will not slow down game play. The referee runs over to the scorer table watches a couple replays and determines who the foul is on. If the offensive player truly fouled a offensive foul is called and if the defensive player flopped or fouled then a foul is called on the defensive player. The referee should do this on any 50/50 calls and any call that is not clearly visible. I know some people will argue that this will extend games significantly but I argue it will increase game length by a maximum of 5 minutes. First of all most games average less than 10 offensive fouls a game not counting loose ball fouls. Second the referee needs to only see 1 or 2 replays to confirm his gut call or overturn it. This system will not be perfect but will clean up flopping because players will be penalized for falling down for no reason. This will also speed up games because it will increase the amount of non-calls referees make allowing more physical contact to be acceptable. Overall this fix would be easy to implement.

I hate watching people fake injuries and flop. Players should play with a certain respect and be penalized for acting on the court.

NFL Championship weekend Picks

Jets and Vikings keep rolling but I still do not want to believe. If the Jets do win today then maybe some wild football karma from the Colts letting the Jets get in is coming into effect and at that point I will have to go with the Jets in the superbowl but for now I am sticking with the favorites. Peyton is the greatest qb of my lifetime, (Montana is greatest overall) but he needs another superbowl to solidify his status. Revis will control Wayne but not Clark and garcon and collie Colts win big!

Vikings and Saints is a great game. As much as I hate to say it the Vikings looked awesome against dallas on d and offense. Saints and Colts is a dream match up so I am going to root for it and pick the Saints. In the end fox is in control if Kim Karashian is shown more than Brett Favre's wife then Saints win!

Updated Picks:
Colts over Jets
Saints over Vikings
Colts over Saints.